Trouble in the Caribbean

Obscured by the hubris of the Russian presidential 'election' in the British media, a potentially far more important turn of events is taking place in Latin America today. President Hugo Chavez ordered the closure of the Venezuelan embassy in Bogota, and the deployment of 10 troop batallions to the Colombian border. This represents an extraordinary volte face from the optimistic state of Colombian/Venezuelan relations only a few months ago, after the unprecedented step taken by Alvaro Uribe in making the Venezuelan president a mediator in deadlocked hostage negotiations. In November Uribe cancelled the invitation to Chavez, claiming that he had been talking (as against prior agreement) to top Colombian generals above his head. Considering Chavez's previous experience of leading military coups, it is easy to see why.
Since then relations have sharply deteriorated, Chavez calling Colombia a 'terrorist state,' and claiming that FARC are a legitimate armed force. This latest development comes after the death of Raul Reyes, second in command in FARC after a Colombian military operation on Saturday. The action has been called a 'cowardly act,' by Chavez, who accuses Colombia of violating Ecuador's soveignty as the operation took place one mile into Ecuadorian territory.
Chavez has made several questionable decisions after surviving a coup in 2002 that was supported by Washington. These had included denouncing the United States, breaking out of the Andean community trading bloc, extending cordial relations to Iran and arming a 100,000 strong militia directly under his control from the urban poor. However, apart from the latter many of these actions have been no more than political stunts, and incendiary rhetoric more often than not gets hotter before an election or referendum that Chavez or his supporters needed to win.
Nothing has come close to a large scale military deployment that threatens Venezeula's closest neighbour.
It is possible that Chavez is feeling internally vulnerable after the rejection in December of his proposed constitutional changes in a popular referendum, meaning he has only a couple of years left as president until he has to stand down. If so, this makes today's announcement especially worrying, as Chavez had agreed to respect the result - a military emergency could threaten Venezuela's democracy, which has been itself groaning under the ego of the president, and his use of the Venezuelan state as his personal political tool.
It is even more worrying for the Colombians, who would be vulnerable to a Venezuelan attack, although the country has United States military support. President Uribe has overwhelming public backing in his policies regarding FARC, and his position with Venezuela. Because of Colombia's relationship with the United States, Chavez has attempted to ostracise the country from other South American governments, the majority of which have social democrats in charge. Chavez has talked of a 'Bolivaran-socialist' revolution across the continent. However, Colombia has cordial relations with all other South American governments, including Lula da Silva's in Brasil. This is either, then, another colossal piece of political showmanship by Chavez, intended to shore up his support among Venezuela's urban poor, who for the first time are beginning to criticise him, or something far more sinister. It is hard to see how Chavez could hold realistic plans to attack Colombia (the war would be devestating to both and each are the other's biggest trading partner), unless it was to provoke some kind of American response before the Bush regime leaves the White House. Either way, Chavez is playing a risky game.