Tirofijo Dead

FARC leader Pedro Antonio Marin has died, according to the Colombian minister of defence and Colombian news networks. This is a stunning success for the government and follows the capture of Nelly Avila Moreno, aka Karina, a feared guerrilla leader on Sunday. That is the leader of the organisation, and the commander of Force 47 (also a member of the seven strong Farc ruling council.) A few weeks ago second in command Raul Reyes was killed by an army raid two kilometres over the border into Ecuador, and a few days after that Ivan Rios, another hated rebel commander was assasinated by one of his bodyguards. These events are highly significant - no top rebel commander had been killed by the government until Reyes since the conflict with Farc began.
Is the Colombian government winning the war? Uribe's first four years were taken up by negotiating a deal with right-wing paramilitaries which helped end the virtual civil war in the country and cleared the guerrillas out of the major cities. Uribe was criticised for his links with the paramilitaries and for treating them softly - but the tactic worked. Striking a mortal blow at the FARC, holed up in the jungles of Colombia's Amazonian south, proved far more difficult. It seems, however, that the terrorist organisation is beginning to disintergrate in the face of sustained pressure from the army, which has not been held up by negotiations that allowed the FARC to regroup in the past, Uribe's canny policy of divide and rule - offering huge rewards for the death of rebel leaders (that was what got rid of Rios), and FARC's increasing pariah status in the international community. Their strategy of kidnapping domestic and foreign citizens hugely backfired when the images of emaciated Frenchwoman Ingrid Betancourt were displayed on news networks across the world. Colombian's have long regarded the FARC as terrorists - the hatred is painfully evident even in official circles. Asked about the death of Marin military spokesman Manuel Santos said bitterly 'I hope he goes to hell.' As I was told by a former Colombian minister of the interior nearly every family in public life (whether local or national politician, journalist or in business) has had a relative or friend kidnapped or assasinated by the FARC. Uribe's father was killed by them - Karina was supposed to have a hand in the job. They used to retain some quasi-romantic revolutionary gloss in the international media and left-wing circles in this country left over from the days of Guevara. It is pleasing to see that this bunch of murders, criminals, drug-traffickers and terrorists are regarded thus no longer.
It is true that many of the guerrillas are uneducated rural poor (none of the leaders have ever been to a major city), and Uribe has sensibly extended a new policy of amnesty towards any of those who defect from the FARC. This is the same as was extended to the paramilitaries, and has already yielded results. Over the last few weeks the victories against the FARC have been remarkable. It is still too early to say, but it may be that there is a possibility that this century old conflict is drawing to a close. If this is the case, the footsolidiers of the FARC need to be sensibly intergrated into society and not persecuted. Hurt will run deep, but the answer to heal old wounds is not to aggravate them but soothe them. Let us hope that this is the way things will precede.

Are Correa and Chavez guilty?

The story of the Colombian raid into Ecuador that killed FARC leader Raul Reyes has taken a dramatic twist. Interpol have confirmed that the files found on computers seized by the Colombian army are genuine and have not been added to or deleted - those files purportedly show the involvement of Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez and Ecuadorian president Raphael Correa in funding and supporting the FARC. As I mentioned when the story first broke, a lot hinges on the authenticity of these accusations. If they are true it is hard to see how Colombia could continue to treat either of the two nations as anything other than hostile enemies: actively supporting a terrorist group that is trying to topple the government of your neighbour is a declaration of proxy war.
It also massively undermines the credibility of the two leftist leaders and their administrations and has wider implications for the continent. Suspicions had been raised in the Colombian press when Correa embarked on a tour of Europe last week, seemingly to give his side of the story before the revelations broke and shore up international support. Chavez has characteristically dismissed the accusations entirely. Niether can escape the fact, however, that the evidence puts them under the umbrella of countries like Iran in supporting terrorist organisations. This is not the image that they want to convey as leading lights in the new democratic socialist movement supposedly sweeping across Latin America, the idea of which has so far had an easy ride in the international press.
It is not just this, but the fact that both leaders have been struggling of late to maintain the huge public spending which is a cornerstone of their political project. Chavez has been suffering domestically as inflation continues to raise the cost of living - not popular with the urban poor that make up the bulk of his support. In Ecuador growth has slowed to its lowest in decades despite the oil profits that are supporting government spending. The opposition has been making inroads by arguing that more of the oil profits should be being saved - although oil prices are higher than ever world economic conditions are not conducive to the expensive task of maintaining welfare levels for your average Ecuadorian. Both leaders, however, have seen their popularity rise as a result of the Colombian affair - so perhaps politics in the continent could be more unstable than ever. Perhaps also we might see a reversal of the 'progressive tide,' of left wing governments elected - take Argentina, for example. Cristina Kirshna has incurred the wrath of most of the country for her export tax on farmers: for the first time social barriers between urban and rural Argentinians were broken down as the country rallied in support of the farmers. Expect social policies aimed at targeting the 'rich' to redistribute wealth (the Argentinian farmers are by no means rich) to be regarded by an increasingly sceptical eye by once sympathetic middle and lower middle classes in these cases as tax and tax brackets are increased and begin to hurt them more.

So where now for Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela? Ron Noble, the Australian police officer brought in to assertain the authenticity of the computer files has not spoken about their contents. Expect to see the Colombians producing them in the near future. The sensible option would be for the Colombians to drop the issue in favour of an unconditional assurance that Ecuador and Venezuela will break off contact with the FARC and will cooperate with Colombia in its defeat in the Amazonian jungles of the south of their countries. Anything brought up in front of the International Court of Justice or the UN could prove an intolerable embarrasment and affront to Chavez and Correa, particuarly with the former's huge ego. What is certain is that this story is not yet dead.