Are Correa and Chavez guilty?

The story of the Colombian raid into Ecuador that killed FARC leader Raul Reyes has taken a dramatic twist. Interpol have confirmed that the files found on computers seized by the Colombian army are genuine and have not been added to or deleted - those files purportedly show the involvement of Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez and Ecuadorian president Raphael Correa in funding and supporting the FARC. As I mentioned when the story first broke, a lot hinges on the authenticity of these accusations. If they are true it is hard to see how Colombia could continue to treat either of the two nations as anything other than hostile enemies: actively supporting a terrorist group that is trying to topple the government of your neighbour is a declaration of proxy war.
It also massively undermines the credibility of the two leftist leaders and their administrations and has wider implications for the continent. Suspicions had been raised in the Colombian press when Correa embarked on a tour of Europe last week, seemingly to give his side of the story before the revelations broke and shore up international support. Chavez has characteristically dismissed the accusations entirely. Niether can escape the fact, however, that the evidence puts them under the umbrella of countries like Iran in supporting terrorist organisations. This is not the image that they want to convey as leading lights in the new democratic socialist movement supposedly sweeping across Latin America, the idea of which has so far had an easy ride in the international press.
It is not just this, but the fact that both leaders have been struggling of late to maintain the huge public spending which is a cornerstone of their political project. Chavez has been suffering domestically as inflation continues to raise the cost of living - not popular with the urban poor that make up the bulk of his support. In Ecuador growth has slowed to its lowest in decades despite the oil profits that are supporting government spending. The opposition has been making inroads by arguing that more of the oil profits should be being saved - although oil prices are higher than ever world economic conditions are not conducive to the expensive task of maintaining welfare levels for your average Ecuadorian. Both leaders, however, have seen their popularity rise as a result of the Colombian affair - so perhaps politics in the continent could be more unstable than ever. Perhaps also we might see a reversal of the 'progressive tide,' of left wing governments elected - take Argentina, for example. Cristina Kirshna has incurred the wrath of most of the country for her export tax on farmers: for the first time social barriers between urban and rural Argentinians were broken down as the country rallied in support of the farmers. Expect social policies aimed at targeting the 'rich' to redistribute wealth (the Argentinian farmers are by no means rich) to be regarded by an increasingly sceptical eye by once sympathetic middle and lower middle classes in these cases as tax and tax brackets are increased and begin to hurt them more.

So where now for Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela? Ron Noble, the Australian police officer brought in to assertain the authenticity of the computer files has not spoken about their contents. Expect to see the Colombians producing them in the near future. The sensible option would be for the Colombians to drop the issue in favour of an unconditional assurance that Ecuador and Venezuela will break off contact with the FARC and will cooperate with Colombia in its defeat in the Amazonian jungles of the south of their countries. Anything brought up in front of the International Court of Justice or the UN could prove an intolerable embarrasment and affront to Chavez and Correa, particuarly with the former's huge ego. What is certain is that this story is not yet dead.